EEToday News Agency, November 28 - Alex Rohner, fixed income strategist at City Index Switzerland, expects that the U.S. midterm elections will not hinder the resilience of the U.S. economy. He forecasts that the U.S. economy will remain robust over the next 6 to 12 months, and the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

    Alex Rohner stated that rather than determining whether President Trump's economic policies will continue, the election results will more likely determine how far these policies can advance and to what extent Congress can check the President. Democratic control of both chambers is currently the most likely outcome, which would place the current administration under the strongest constraints, strengthen the Fed's independence, and increase the Democrats' bargaining power on spending issues.

    However, the bank expects no major policy reversals. Compared to other election outcomes, Democratic control of both chambers appears most favorable for the U.S. Treasury market. At least according to historical data, when Democrats control both chambers, the S&P 500 Index performs best, with an average increase of 8.8% in the three months following the election.

    The bank cited data from Polymarket showing a 66% probability that Democrats will control both the Senate and the House, an 8% probability that Republicans will retain control of both chambers, and a 27% probability of a split Congress, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans the Senate. (rh)