[ET Net News Agency, 20 July 2026] Hong Kong stocks plunged by 5% on the previous trading day (17th), but this morning, driven by a series of positive news including strong performance from Mainland China AI platforms and a CSRC symposium, successfully recovered lost ground, with net capital inflows currently exceeding 10 billion yuan. The HSI stood at 25,072 at midday, up 510 points or 2.1%, breaking back above the 50-day moving average (around 24,743) and reclaiming the 25,000 mark. Resistance is expected at the 100-day moving average (around 25,268), with main board turnover reaching nearly 165.7 billion yuan, though southbound net inflow was only 400 million yuan. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reported 8,360, up 223 points or 2.8%. The Hang Seng TECH Index reported 4,757, up 134 points or 2.9%.
"Ng Lai Yin: Rally can only continue if high from last week is stabilized"
Over the past weekend, the situation between the US and Iran worsened, sending Brent crude oil soaring past the USD 90 this morning. However, after last Friday's sharp drop, Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly this morning, mainly benefiting from expectations around China AI models. Heavyweight tech stocks such as Alibaba (09988) surged, helping the HSI find support after dropping to its 10-day moving average last Friday, climbing over 500 points this morning to reclaim the 25,000 level. Ng Lai Yin, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities, told ET Net News Agency that today's rebound in Hong Kong stocks is strong, but whether short-term momentum can be maintained depends primarily on whether it can break above last week's high of 25,211 within this week or the next day or two. If successful, Hong Kong stocks can still maintain their strong short-term recovery momentum.
However, Ng remains conservative regarding the short-term market outlook, as global appetite for the AI concept has recently turned slightly cool. Compounded by the US-Iran conflict and interest rate directions, global risk appetite has shrunk, so Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily move upwards as wished. The HSI is expected to encounter resistance around the current level of 25,000, so investors holding positions from lower levels might consider short-term profit-taking to reduce positions at highs; there is no harm in picking up stock again at lower levels later. Nevertheless, he is not pessimistic about the second-half performance, maintaining a year-end target of challenging 28,000.
"China AI can compete with US AI in performance, but market sentiment dims Moonshot AI's aura"
Following the announcement last week of Kimi K3, the largest parameter model in history, by Moonshot AI, one of the "Six Little Tigers of AI", Alibaba subsequently announced its "Qwen3.8" large model with parameters reaching up to 2.4 trillion, only slightly lower than Kimi K3's 2.8 trillion. Both new and established AI leaders are rolling out new innovations simultaneously, boosting expectations for China AI and driving today's Hong Kong stock rebound. Commenting on this, Ng pointed out that while the current large model market is indeed dominated by China and the US, China large models are still catching up compared to the most advanced US models. However, he admitted that according to data from industry AI large model evaluation agencies, China AI platforms such as Zhipu (02513) are indeed not far behind US large models in terms of performance and overall ratings. This will help drive valuations of China AI companies closer to US large model firms, narrowing the gap between China and the US. Coupled with Mainland government support for the development of the large model industry, policy support leaves ample room for upward valuation revisions for large model stocks.
Following news of Kimi K3's launch, market rumours suggest Moonshot AI is set to list on the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year and is currently advancing a new round of Pre-IPO financing. Upon completion, its valuation is expected to rise to USD 30 billion, equivalent to approximately HKD 234 billion. Reports state that as of June this year, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached RMB 2.34 billion, with Alibaba participating as an investor. Ng did not dare guarantee that Moonshot AI can list on schedule in the second half of the year, believing that the biggest factor still depends on market sentiment. Companies generally prefer to list when concepts are being actively hyped, whereas the AI concept is clearly cooling down now. He believes Moonshot AI will not swim against the tide while the AI concept is under selling pressure; everything is governed by market conditions, though a successful listing would certainly be eye-catching.
He reminded that investors have witnessed the post-listing performance of Zhipu and MiniMax (00100), both fellow members of the "Six Little Tigers of AI". In particular, MiniMax's pullback magnitude inevitably makes investors cautious, so when Moonshot AI lists, the market may not necessarily go as wild as it did when speculating on Zhipu and MiniMax.
"Ng Lai Yin: Rally can only continue if high from last week is stabilized"
Over the past weekend, the situation between the US and Iran worsened, sending Brent crude oil soaring past the USD 90 this morning. However, after last Friday's sharp drop, Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly this morning, mainly benefiting from expectations around China AI models. Heavyweight tech stocks such as Alibaba (09988) surged, helping the HSI find support after dropping to its 10-day moving average last Friday, climbing over 500 points this morning to reclaim the 25,000 level. Ng Lai Yin, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities, told ET Net News Agency that today's rebound in Hong Kong stocks is strong, but whether short-term momentum can be maintained depends primarily on whether it can break above last week's high of 25,211 within this week or the next day or two. If successful, Hong Kong stocks can still maintain their strong short-term recovery momentum.
However, Ng remains conservative regarding the short-term market outlook, as global appetite for the AI concept has recently turned slightly cool. Compounded by the US-Iran conflict and interest rate directions, global risk appetite has shrunk, so Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily move upwards as wished. The HSI is expected to encounter resistance around the current level of 25,000, so investors holding positions from lower levels might consider short-term profit-taking to reduce positions at highs; there is no harm in picking up stock again at lower levels later. Nevertheless, he is not pessimistic about the second-half performance, maintaining a year-end target of challenging 28,000.
"China AI can compete with US AI in performance, but market sentiment dims Moonshot AI's aura"
Following the announcement last week of Kimi K3, the largest parameter model in history, by Moonshot AI, one of the "Six Little Tigers of AI", Alibaba subsequently announced its "Qwen3.8" large model with parameters reaching up to 2.4 trillion, only slightly lower than Kimi K3's 2.8 trillion. Both new and established AI leaders are rolling out new innovations simultaneously, boosting expectations for China AI and driving today's Hong Kong stock rebound. Commenting on this, Ng pointed out that while the current large model market is indeed dominated by China and the US, China large models are still catching up compared to the most advanced US models. However, he admitted that according to data from industry AI large model evaluation agencies, China AI platforms such as Zhipu (02513) are indeed not far behind US large models in terms of performance and overall ratings. This will help drive valuations of China AI companies closer to US large model firms, narrowing the gap between China and the US. Coupled with Mainland government support for the development of the large model industry, policy support leaves ample room for upward valuation revisions for large model stocks.
Following news of Kimi K3's launch, market rumours suggest Moonshot AI is set to list on the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year and is currently advancing a new round of Pre-IPO financing. Upon completion, its valuation is expected to rise to USD 30 billion, equivalent to approximately HKD 234 billion. Reports state that as of June this year, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached RMB 2.34 billion, with Alibaba participating as an investor. Ng did not dare guarantee that Moonshot AI can list on schedule in the second half of the year, believing that the biggest factor still depends on market sentiment. Companies generally prefer to list when concepts are being actively hyped, whereas the AI concept is clearly cooling down now. He believes Moonshot AI will not swim against the tide while the AI concept is under selling pressure; everything is governed by market conditions, though a successful listing would certainly be eye-catching.
He reminded that investors have witnessed the post-listing performance of Zhipu and MiniMax (00100), both fellow members of the "Six Little Tigers of AI". In particular, MiniMax's pullback magnitude inevitably makes investors cautious, so when Moonshot AI lists, the market may not necessarily go as wild as it did when speculating on Zhipu and MiniMax.
